How High Can Starbucks Fly? It All Hinges on One Metric


The stock is soaring, and it could keep going up -- as long as comps do, too.



Who says megarestaurant chains can't be high-octane growth companies? Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) has rocketed 46% higher in the last year as the world's third-largest restaurant chain by number of locations has reignited existing store sales growth. Despite the surge in stock price, though, the coffee shop and retailer can keep climbing if it can demonstrate that its recent momentum in comps is more than just fleeting.

What's the deal with comps?

Comparable-store sales is a combination of the number of transactions (foot traffic) and ticket size per order at existing stores -- in Starbucks' case, stores that have been open for at least 13 months. For a company with over 30,000 locations worldwide, rising comps is one of the primary ways Starbucks can increase profitable sales.

Comps were touch-and-go in 2018. Though the metric ended the year up 2%, there were quarterly declines at times -- especially in the important growth region of China and greater Asia. The annual rate was a deceleration from years past. As early as 2016, Starbucks was still putting up 6% global comps growth.


For fiscal 2019 to date, though, Starbucks has had a resurgence in comps -- up 4% in the second quarter and 3% in the first. Leading the charge has been the U.S. Though new store openings in North America have slowed to a low single-digit crawl, it's where the majority of global locations are located (currently over 17,700). Thus, comps are the most important way to grow overall sales in what is still Starbucks' largest market.




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